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India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll LIVE: Who will win Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Assam?

Will Mamata Banerjee repeat her dramatic win of 2011? Can Jayalalithaa make history by winning back to back Assembly polls. India awaits the big verdict on May 19.
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The Battle of 2016 ended today with election in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry following a multi-phased polling in West Bengal and Assam in the last two months.

Will Mamata Banerjee repeat her dramatic win of 2011 or can the Congress-Left combine stage a miracle in West Bengal? In Tamil Nadu, can Jayalalithaa make history by becoming the first chief minister since MGR to win back to back elections or will 93-year-old Karunanidhi have one last comeback?

Is this the BJP’s big breakthrough election in Assam? Or will Tarun Gogoi become a four time chief minister? In Kerala, will the left return to power in a revolving door state or can Oommen Chandy offer hope to the congress? And who will take Puducherry?

WHY BATTLE OF 2016 MATTERS
  1. Victory for BJP in Assam will boost Amit Shah-Narendra Modi duo
  2. BJP defeat in Assam would be a major setback for Shah-Modi duo
  3. If Congress loses Assam and Kerala it would be in power in just five states
  4. Left needs a win in either Kerala or Bengal to retain any national footprint
  5. Results will set the stage for Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand polls next year
  6. Shape of Rajya Sabha will depend on key state election results
  • The Left-Congress alliance did give Mamata run for her money in North Bengal: Ashok Malik, senior journalist
  • I feel that Mamata Banerjee’s hold over the underclass, the poor is very much there. I think she has the edge in Bengal: Manini Chatterjee
  • Traditional AIADMK vote is now partially going to DMK and partially to Vijayakanth alliance: Dr. Sandeep Shashtri
  • Not sure how much the alliance between Congress and the Left in West Bengal has been able to penetrate among the voters: Dr. Sandeep Shashtri, political scientist
  • BJP is comfortably placed whichever way this election goes: Javed Ansari, Editor-National Affairs, India Today TV
  • Assam is important because it will decide performance for Amit Shah: Manini Chatterjee, senior journalist

 X-FACTORS: TAMIL NADU

1. Is Jayalalithaa’s freebie package influencing voters?
2. Can DMK capitalise on flood anger and agrarian distress?
3. Does Jayalalithaa still hold sway amongst women voters?
4. Who will the third front and BJP damage more: Jayalalithaa or DMK?

X-FACTORS: ASSAM

1. Will BJP sweep upper Assam and make dents in Barak Valley?
2. Will BJP’s alliance with AGP and BPF be a boon or a bane?
3. Will the Muslim vote in lower Assam be divided between Congress and AIDUF?
4. Will traditional Congress vote banks switch sides because of 15 year incumbency?

X-FACTORS: WEST BENGAL

1. Will the arithmetic between Left and Congress work on the ground?
2. Will Mamata dominate rural Bengal once again?
3. Who will the BJP take maximum votes away from: Mamata or Congress-Left alliance?
4. Will corruption charges hurt Mamata in urban Bengal?

 

 

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